Excerpt from 2020 article

Recent (i.e., post-1950s) atmospheric CO2 levels have increased dramatically compared to historical levels over the last 10,000 years (Figure 1, see Article). In 2016, CO2 levels in the atmosphere surpassed 400 ppm and failed to return below this value. This is the first time this has occurred in the last 800,000 years, and likely the first time it has occurred since the Pliocene Epoch (between 2.6 and 5.3 million years ago).

Many aspects of the climate system are highly complex and uncertain, and some are still not fully understood. However, the reality of human-caused climate change is simply scientific fact. A full discussion of energy budgets, GHGs, the greenhouse effect, positive feedback cycles and other relevant concepts can be found in excellent and readily available climate change resources (see Resources, in Full Article).

Projecting future climate changes is a complex and uncertain undertaking. The best tools available for projecting future climates are global climate models (GCMs).

How climate change is expected to continue specifically in the B.C. South Coast region has been analyzed with outputs from a suite of 30 GCMs, run using multiple emissions scenarios. The average values (and the 10th to 90th percentilex range of projections) are shown below for both temperature and precipitation.

Future projections indicate that the region will:

• warm by approximately 1.7°C (from 1.1 to 2.5°C) in the 2050s, compared to the 1961-1990 baseline;

• become 6% wetter annually in the 2050s, compared to the 1961-1990 baseline.

Read the full article for more information and to see what else is happening.

Background: Wildfire smoke at the Sea to Sky Gondola. (Credit: Tracey Saxby)